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Major Financial Institutions: Mid-year outlook for 2025

As we reach the midpoint of 2025, it’s clear that this year has been far more intense than previous ones. Geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions have surged to levels not seen in over three decades. At the same time, we’ve been swept up in a powerful wave of technological, social, and cultural transformation—driven largely by AI. In light of these shifts, we’ve taken a step back to offer a clear and comprehensive overview of the perspectives shaping major financial institutions. Our goal is to give you a nuanced understanding of the mid-year financial outlook for 2025. What is being said? What does this mean for you?

As anticipated in our end-of-year report, the second election of President Donald Trump at the helm of the world’s largest economy has brought significant changes to the global economic and political landscape. The return of major trade tensions between global powers has dampened growth expectations across many regions and is set to accelerate a gradual realignment of global trade — characterized by regional repositioning and sector-specific shifts. Nevertheless, most institutions continue to project a slowdown rather than a full-scale global recession, signaling a period of adjustment rather than crisis.

Inflation continues on an uneven path, with signs of easing in the near term offset by longer-term pressures. Tariffs, energy volatility and country-specific policies are likely to keep inflation moderately elevated in key markets. Labor markets, while still resilient, are beginning to show signs of fatigue. Job creation is slowing and emerging frictions are complicating employment transitions. However, gains in productivity and wage growth are helping to maintain a degree of underlying strength.

Overall, 2025 is shaping up as a year of adjustment and adaptation. In this landscape, the importance of government affairs and financial communication is paramount.

Navigating this shifting terrain requires active engagement with policymakers, clear and consistent messaging and a forward-looking approach to regulatory developments. These elements are critical for clients seeking to adapt, mitigate risk, and seize opportunities in an increasingly complex environment. FTI Consulting is specialised in helping you address the challenges to come.