Peru Political Update: Navigating Instability and Institutional Reform
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April 16, 2025
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Election Year
Peruvian President Dina Boluarte, who took office following the removal of Pedro Castillo in 2022,1 is facing widespread unpopularity, with a staggering 93% disapproval rating as of March 2025.2 Since she was not elected by popular vote, multiple sectors have called for early elections to allow a democratically elected leader to govern the country.3
2026 Presidential Elections: Amid President Boluarte’s staggering 93% disapproval rating and increasing concerns over weakened check and balances, Peru will hold its general elections on April 12, 2026.4
Despite these demands, Boluarte has confirmed that general elections will be held on April 12, 2026, aligning with the original end of term for both Castillo and herself—effectively rejecting calls for an earlier vote.5 In these elections, Peruvians will elect a new president, 130 deputies, and 60 senators.6 Boluarte, under constitutional rules, is barred from seeking re-election.7
Political analyst, lawyer and journalist Rosa María Palacios, suggested that Boluarte’s early announcement of the election date may be a strategic move to deflect public scrutiny from her administration’s challenges and mounting disapproval ratings.8
Institutional Challenges, and Electoral Reforms
Public trust in political elites remains low, with deep-seated voter distrust expected to persist beyond 2026.9 No political party currently holds significant support, and many voters express a preference for candidates without prior political experience.10 While the presidential race is expected to draw attention, the newly empowered Congress may wield considerable influence, as recent electoral reforms appear to favor traditional elites who can form regional alliances.11 Additionally, weakened institutions and politicized judicial bodies raise concerns about the fairness and legitimacy of the electoral process.12
In preparation for the for the 2026 elections, the government is also enforcing Article 192 of the Organic Law of Elections, purportedly to ensure state-run media, official communications, and campaigns remain neutral.13 This measure prohibits the use of state resources for political purposes and applies to all government platforms – including those managed by the National Office of Electoral Processes (“ONPE”), National Jury of Elections (“JNE”), and National Registry of Identification and Civil Status (“RENEIC”).14
In addition, the congress has recently approved a constitutional reform to transition from a unicameral to a bicameral Congress.15 Although the 2018 referendum saw 90.5% of voters reject bicameralism, proponents argue that a second chamber could offer more comprehensive legislative oversight.16
Security Crisis
The election call comes amid a severe security crisis. In response to a recent surge in violence – including rising cases of extortion and homicide cases,17, 18 as well as the murder of popular cumbia singer Paul Flores – the government declared a 30-day state of emergency in Lima and Callao.19 The state of emergency enables authorities to suspend certain civil liberties and detain individuals without judicial orders as they deploy additional soldiers to support local police.20
The violence has deepened public discontent. A major demonstration, the so-called Marcha de Paz (‘March for Peace’), took place on March 28, 2025,21 bringing together artists, musical groups, and civil society organizations affected by rising crime and extortion.22 Protesters called for urgent government intervention to curb organized crime and contract killings.23, 24 This wave of protests culminated in a no-confidence vote against Interior Minister Juan José Santivañez, who was ousted by Congress for his failure to control the crisis.25
FTI Consulting - Identified Risks for Peru’s 2026 Elections
The announcement of Peru’s 2026 general elections introduces several significant risks:
- Restrictions on new parties: While a record 54 parties have registered for Peru’s 2026 elections, the administration has imposed regulatory barriers that limit the participation of emerging political movements.26 This results in a crowded field where established parties with strong networks hold an advantage, while newer contenders struggle to compete.
- Check and balances: Recent actions by Congress, including attempts to exert influence over the judiciary and other public entities, have raised concerns about the erosion of checks and balances essential for a functioning democracy.27
- Congressional power: Despite a new president being elected, there is doubt about meaningful systemic change. With persistently high disapproval ratings and an increasingly pressing Congress, the presidential role could be seen as potentially ceremonial while real power continues to be concentrated in the legislature.
- Lack of transparency: The politicization of institutions responsible for overseeing elections could compromise the integrity of the electoral process, leading to disputes over legitimacy and potential unrest.
- Overall public distrust: High disapproval ratings for both the executive and legislative branches, coupled with deep-seated political polarization, may fuel further instability and diminish public trust in the electoral process.
- Insecurity: Security remains a pressing concern, with rising crime rates, political maneuvering ahead of the elections, and government measures aimed at curbing both public unrest and criminal activity.
- Social conflict: Indigenous communities have initiated protests against mining operations, blocking access to Glencore’s Antapaccay copper mine in the Cusco region.28 Amid a volatile political landscape, the government’s ability to address these conflicts is crucial for maintaining stability.
Conclusion
With the forthcoming elections, there is hope for renewed political stability and enhanced legislative oversight. However, the increasing politicization of key institutions and the erosion of democratic checks and balances introduce significant risks that could impact Peru’s business environment. As uncertainty looms, investors and business leaders must stay ahead of potential disruptions. At FTI Consulting, we are closely monitoring these developments, helping clients to navigate the landscape and capitalize on opportunities. Reach out to learn how these changes may affect your interests in the region.
Footnotes:
1: “RMP sobre Dina Boluarte: ‘Solo le queda comprometerse a irse pronto’”, La República (December 11, 2022).
2: “Deeply Unpopular Peruvian President Calls for General Elections in April 2026”, Associated Press News (March 26, 2025).
3: “Peruvian Congress Rejects Bll Calling for Early Elections”, CGTN (December 17, 2022).
4: “Deeply Unpopular Peruvian President Calls for General Elections in April 2026”, Associated Press News (March 26, 2025).
5: Brendan O’Boyle, “Peru President Calls General Elections for April 2026”, Reuters (March 25, 2025).
6: “Deeply Unpopular Peruvian President Calls for General Elections in April 2026”, Associated Press News (March 26, 2025).
7: Catherine Osborn, “What We’re Following: Peru is Set for Elections”, Foreign Policy (March 28, 2025).
8: “Elecciones convocadas y poderosos en procesos con Rosa María Palacios”, La República (March 26, 2025).
9: “Weak parties will drive political instability in Peru”, Oxford Analytica (January 31, 2025).
10: “Ten Risks for Peru’s 2026 Election”, Boz (April 1, 2025).
11: “Peru”, Freedom House (2024).
12: “Six Stories – 27 March 2025”, Boz (March 27, 2027).
13: “Peru: Government Officializes Call for General Elctions on April 12, 2026”, Andina (March 26, 2025).
14: “Jefe de la ONPE presenta avances en la organización de las Elecciones Generales 2026”, Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (Marzo 4, 2025).
15: “In Peru, Congress Approves Constitutional Reform for Return to Bicameralism”, Constituionnet (March 8,2024).
16: “Boluarte convoca elecciones presidenciales y parlamentarias en Perú el 12 de abril de 2026”, El Comercio (March 25, 2025).
17: Alejandro Aguilar, “PNP reporta más de 16 mil casos de extorsión en el 2024: la mayoría de las víctimas fueron comerciantes”, Infobae (December 7, 2024).
18: Carlos Rosales Salas, “Homicidios en Perú: 2,509 muertes en 2024, un incremento del 125% desde 2019, según PNP”, Gestión (January 16, 2025).
19: “Peru declares an emergency and deploys the army as violence surges in the capital”, Associated Press News (March 18, 205).
20: “Peru declares an emergency and deploys the army as violence surges in the capital”, Associated Press News (March 18, 205).
21: Jimena de la Quintana, “Peruanos vuelven a salir a las calles para reclamar por la inseguridad que vive el país” CNN Latinoamérica (March 28, 2025).
22: Carlos Espinoza, “Marcha por la Paz: Artistas y agrupaciones musicales vçitimas de extrosión salieron a las calles a exigir más seguridad”, Infobae (March 28, 2025).
23: “Protestas em Perú exigen al Gobierno reforzar el combate al crimen organizdo y al sicariato”, Swissinfo (March 22, 2025).
24: “Protestas en Perú contra el gobierno de Boluarte por el auge del crimen organizado”, MSN News (March 31, 2025).
25: “Peru’s Congress Votes to Oust the Interior Minister for Failing to Halt Killings”, Associated Press News (March 21, 2025).
26: Marcelo Rochabrun, “Peru’s Risky Top Job is Attracting More Candidates than Ever”, BNN Bloomberg (July 19, 2024).
27: “Peru: Congress runs roughshod over the rule of law”, Human Rights Watch (March 11, 2024).
28: “Indigenous groups in Peru protest Glencore’s Antapaccay mine”, Reuters (March 31, 2025).
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